Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 191.104137 231.870663 282.322507 350.481010 441.954150 5.631971e+02 7.409054e+02
2025-05-04 147.134760 195.116277 262.303011 367.165788 534.627338 8.075784e+02 1.325985e+03
2025-05-11 121.725862 171.347250 247.017166 378.272171 618.440726 1.085220e+03 2.220193e+03
2025-05-18 103.784187 152.622649 232.008272 381.544364 687.637509 1.382831e+03 3.539813e+03
2025-05-25 89.500736 136.024564 215.434715 375.101475 733.689799 1.667848e+03 5.347219e+03
2025-06-01 78.134533 121.881373 199.530399 364.258984 764.667867 1.945142e+03 7.848514e+03
2025-06-08 69.120042 110.166103 185.443396 352.632573 788.402410 2.229513e+03 1.144845e+04
2025-06-15 66.661959 109.572060 192.084832 388.257554 957.699035 3.232656e+03 2.656725e+04
2025-06-22 61.558441 103.262036 186.033122 392.221670 1038.487622 4.022247e+03 5.146002e+04
2025-06-29 57.961918 99.272337 183.987593 405.670656 1161.243551 5.291181e+03 1.295257e+05
2025-07-06 53.556188 93.096083 176.108444 401.313378 1219.084665 6.340820e+03 3.066331e+05
2025-07-13 52.420771 93.309739 182.477212 439.217896 1478.280035 9.858611e+03 3.682824e+06
2025-07-20 50.685099 92.218778 186.064308 472.144933 1763.133366 1.559871e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 48.607066 90.133972 186.928158 497.503482 2049.830114 2.453823e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 46.310209 87.265041 185.292985 514.182366 2317.933168 3.796315e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 43.769780 83.538115 180.772438 519.096157 2526.174450 5.591699e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 40.962452 78.893283 173.056597 509.460708 2625.649413 7.472505e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 38.221264 74.130344 164.329835 493.290758 2661.911144 9.442987e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 35.722748 69.700535 155.916254 476.020799 2675.372808 1.172485e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 35.607590 70.884024 163.503408 529.164539 3441.811546 3.825788e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 34.102387 68.556077 160.548957 535.118963 3760.490421 8.044146e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 33.073090 67.291455 160.573339 555.380049 4318.067595 2.956801e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 31.476528 64.465491 155.428204 548.805720 4523.436594 8.095512e+06 NaN